energy for energy

  Latin America is affected by remote conflicts. The region also has its own conflicts, but they are not as affected by this as conflicts in regions that sell or consume raw materials. These are the Middle East and Asia. Verisk Maplecroft says that conflict-affected areas have grown by 65% since 2021. They now cover 4.6% of the world's land, up from 2.8% three years ago. That's almost twice the size of India. The upsurge in conflict is having a significant impact on people, migration, geopolitics, the economy and international trade. More people are dying in violence. By the end of the year, there will be more than 200,000 deaths from conflict, which is 29% more than in 2021. The Middle East and Ukraine are the most intense war zones. Both could get worse. Twenty-seven countries, including Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Thailand, have seen a big rise in risk since 2021. But sub-Saharan Africa has seen more conflict than any other region. The Indo-Pacific region is ...

The potential for Latin America to become a major player in the clean hydrogen market is significant, but there are obstacles to overcome to achieve this goal. Overall, while Latin America has potential for clean hydrogen production, challenges remain in terms of investment, regulation and market development. The potential for clean hydrogen in Latin America is underpinned by a few key factors, including: The region boasts an abundance of renewable resources : Latin America boasts a wealth of hydropower and other renewable energy sources that can be harnessed to produce clean hydrogen. Global demand for clean hydrogen is growing rapidly : The global market is seeking alternatives to fossil fuels, making clean hydrogen a highly sought-after commodity. The potential for economic opportunity is significant : Clean hydrogen production has the potential to be a significant economic driver for the region. However, there are challenges to hydrogen production: Investment : Despite go...

  The likelihood of a new round of high U.S. tariffs on China increased after Trump's choice of running mate JD Vance. In one scenario, Goldman Sachs economists estimate a roughly 2 percentage point hit to China's GDP from a 60% U.S. tariff. Their counterparts at UBS this week calculated a 2.5 percentage point hit to growth in a year. As for the U.S., Wells Fargo warned that a full-blown tariff war could lead to a drop in U.S. GDP, along with a rise in inflation, but there is no solid estimate yet. There are several reasons why Trump is likely to raise tariffs on China. The perception in Washington is that the first trade war, which Trump launched in 2018, did not leave the United States unduly damaged. While there were many negative warnings at the time, there was no noticeable increase in inflation or impact on employment or financial markets. Therefore, "resistance to further action is low." A full 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, combined with the 10% univer...

  Various Eurasian powers are deploying their simplest strategies to connect with Latin America's mining and agri-food potential. There is Turkey, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, but the one that stands out most now is India. India has been actively engaged in talks with countries in Latin America (including Africa) to secure critical mineral blocks essential for clean energy technologies (electric vehicles, wind turbines, and power grids), especially lithium, while continuing to pursue oil for energy security reasons. In January, India signed a $24 million agreement for lithium exploration in Argentina. This is part of a broader strategy in which India aims to acquire mineral blocks on a government-to-government or priority basis from resource-rich countries in these regions. In any case, India's Ministry of Mines is also prioritizing the exploration of critical minerals domestically. It recently auctioned its first lithium block in Chhattisgarh, and m...

  Flashy, cheap Chinese electric vehicle models are arriving in many markets around the world, causing Western governments to worry about the damage they could do to their own auto industries and even their industrial bases. Such is the concern that this week Canada joined the U.S. and the European Union in imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. These vehicles also arrive in Latin America. For the West, the fear is that Beijing is unfairly propping up its electric vehicle sector with an avalanche of subsidies. There is some truth to this. According to a recent study, China's electric vehicles benefited from at least $231 billion in government funding and support from 2009 through the end of last year. But while generous financial support certainly helped, many other elements drove the industry, including vision, timing, entrepreneurship, and the competition that drives innovation. They were able to anticipate and understand where the market was going better than their W...

  The United States has had a good run in terms of productive recovery, and Latin America is taking advantage of that and nearshoring. It is a curious situation because although the primary sector is more dependent on China, in the industrial sector the link is closer to the United States, especially in relation to Mexico, Colombia and Brazil. In the case of Mexico, the crisis with China is already paying off. It is not yet known how much of the nearshoring is being absorbed by Chinese industry, but it is certain that northern Mexico is coping quite well with the crisis. This is important in times of tension with other superpowers. Russia, China, and Iran are very active in the region and are trying to align some governments, but the United States and the United Kingdom in recent weeks are keeping an eye on some of the underground trends that the Eurasian powers are showing. There is a strong smell of asymmetric warfare with the use of transnational criminality, and Trump's con...

  Latin America faces several crossroads in the coming years. The most important one is Trump's possible victory, with implications for many Pink Tide governments, especially Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. The other has to do with the management of its relations with China in the midst of maneuvers to circumvent American restrictions on global industry, including certain strategic sectors. China will insist on circumventing American restrictions by using its Asian neighborhood and the environment of its customers in the West. With Trump, it may come to a point where the magnifying glass on Latin American supply chains will be very large. In the midst of all this, Europe looks out of place, or at least somewhat confused and indecisive. There is another crossroads that is much more regional, though with global implications, and that has to do with the impact of insecurity on the functioning of economies and democratic systems. There is evidence of the use of criminal or irregular...

Latin America plays a preeminent role in the supply chains of raw materials useful for the energy transition, and even contributes to global sustainability by saving in case the climate helps lower hydrocarbon prices due to its heavy use of hydroelectricity. This region has two geologically driven development tracks: 1) the Atlantic front specializing in hydrocarbons and 2) the Pacific front specializing in copper and lithium. There are other minerals and rare earths. The differentiations are not exclusive, but they influence the markets. The help of the massive use of hydroelectricity and its little industrialization actually help to free these raw materials for export, if the climate helps. Future Trends China is beginning to take advantage of space to develop its electric vehicle industry in the Southern Cone and from there connect to Mexico, which serves North America, Central America and the Caribbean. Brazil and the lithium triangle will be key to China's development of...