The Impact of the Third World War on Latin America

 

The United States has had a good run in terms of productive recovery, and Latin America is taking advantage of that and nearshoring. It is a curious situation because although the primary sector is more dependent on China, in the industrial sector the link is closer to the United States, especially in relation to Mexico, Colombia and Brazil. In the case of Mexico, the crisis with China is already paying off. It is not yet known how much of the nearshoring is being absorbed by Chinese industry, but it is certain that northern Mexico is coping quite well with the crisis.

This is important in times of tension with other superpowers. Russia, China, and Iran are very active in the region and are trying to align some governments, but the United States and the United Kingdom in recent weeks are keeping an eye on some of the underground trends that the Eurasian powers are showing.

There is a strong smell of asymmetric warfare with the use of transnational criminality, and Trump's continuity in the electoral race helps a lot in this sense. A distancing of some governments from the United States or an adaptation of these Latin American governments to Trump's return could be forged, with which Russia would gain much more weight to the detriment of China and Iran.

The paradox is that while transnational crime or terrorism, especially sponsored by Iran, motivates actions on American territory, it is more likely to strengthen Moscow's position than that of Beijing or Tehran. If Biden or the Democrats maintain their position, Beijing and Tehran stand a chance. Otherwise, it is Moscow that stands to gain the most.

Regardless. The United States is encouraging another dynamic, which is to secure critical natural resources in the region. This is key in the face of future geopolitical shocks. China will also get into the game as battery and electric vehicle plants are built in Mexico and Brazil. Since China is well supplied in this regard, except for copper, with Russia leading the way as a low-cost supplier, the United States could be a formidable buyer of these materials in the region in the midst of the energy transition. This is a long-term trend, but one that could reshape some trade relationships and gravitational shifts.



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