Latin America at a crossroads

 

Latin America faces several crossroads in the coming years. The most important one is Trump's possible victory, with implications for many Pink Tide governments, especially Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. The other has to do with the management of its relations with China in the midst of maneuvers to circumvent American restrictions on global industry, including certain strategic sectors.

China will insist on circumventing American restrictions by using its Asian neighborhood and the environment of its customers in the West. With Trump, it may come to a point where the magnifying glass on Latin American supply chains will be very large.

In the midst of all this, Europe looks out of place, or at least somewhat confused and indecisive.

There is another crossroads that is much more regional, though with global implications, and that has to do with the impact of insecurity on the functioning of economies and democratic systems. There is evidence of the use of criminal or irregular gangs as a political-military tool not only by Eurasian powers, but also by allied governments or political forces in the region. An adverse political turn against these Eurasian powers could end up using this criminal tool to destabilize economies and institutions.

Russia, Iran, China, are beginning to use Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia or Nicaragua, as well as local criminal gangs, for this purpose. Communist or far-right or far-left parties are also beginning to be dusted off. Anything that serves to undermine a democracy allied with the West is on the table. In this sense, asymmetric, analog or digital warfare is felt more strongly. This transversality through criminality will be felt much more in the coming months.




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