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Showing posts with the label Petro

Colombia and Petro's political-energy chaos

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  Petro is balancing between trying to negotiate with “Santismo” and a section of some of the parties prone to the corruption of the "mermelada" to gain control of important bodies such as the Procuraduría and thus influence the renewal of the Constitutional Court and other bodies that could be key to his political future, which does not look good surrounded by many corruption scandals, and mobilising his electoral base and related social movements, victimising himself before the alleged existence of a "coup" or an "assassination attempt" (a classic move of Latin American authoritarian rulers). If this were the only problem in Colombia, all would be relatively well, but the situation is not good and serious crises are still looming with a Petro lost in his political-emotional labyrinth. These crises are: 1) electricity, 2) social conflict that threatens food security, 3) the failure of total peace. On the energy front, Colombia faces the possibility of e...

Colombia: Energy insecurity on the horizon

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  Petro is about to plunge Colombia into a scenario of energy insecurity and the impact on the economy will be terrible. They already have disinvestment problems upstream and downstream, but what Petro is proposing as an energy policy, especially in hydrocarbons, will leave Colombia and its economy at the mercy of a high energy dependence from abroad. The Situation Colombia's economy is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon revenues. Oil and gas exports now account for about 10% of the country's GDP and 20% of its exports. If Petro takes on these numbers, he should leave his sustainability theme for speeches and let Colombia keep exploring (as long as the guerrillas allow, of course). Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for May 31, 2026. Much could change in the intervening two years. It is possible that economic pressures and waning public support could force a rethink of energy policy or even cause damage, given the speed with which reserves could be depleted or...