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Showing posts with the label Oil and gas

The failure of Venezuela's elites

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  Elites are the driving force behind decision-making [1] . Power is the tool they use to manage state resources, and the population acts as the source of legitimacy (in democracies) or as the workforce and support (in autocracies), always maintaining a structural command-obedience gap that is only altered when the elite loses its operational capacity. Since Spanish colonial times, Venezuelan elites have undergone constant and mostly traumatic transformations, leaving no room for an oligarchy like other societies in Latin America. The rise and fall of surnames and the instability of the productive process, always dependent on the external sector, have prevented the components of the elites from remaining the same. That is a reality that persists. There has only been one successful elite, and that is the one that was in power between 1928 and 1973, regardless of the form of government. These elites had a lubricant: oil revenues. Oil revenues. And with that, which is no easy feat, ...

El estado de ánimo de la industria petrolera

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  La conferencia CERAWeek, celebrada en Houston recientemente, reunió a líderes de la industria energética para analizar el panorama global actual. El evento abordó temas críticos como la volatilidad de los precios del petróleo, la política energética de la administración Trump enfocada en la perforación, las preocupaciones sobre seguridad energética, las tensiones geopolíticas y los debates sobre la transición energética, ofreciendo una perspectiva profunda sobre los desafíos y transformaciones del sector energético mundial. Lo que se ha detectado en dicha conferencia es lo siguiente: La industria petrolera estadounidense enfrenta un escenario complejo con la perspectiva de precios más bajos, impulsada por la política de Trump de buscar el crudo a 50 dólares por barril, lo que podría hacer inviables muchas operaciones de esquisto. Aunque la administración promete desregulación y mayor acceso a arrendamientos, la incertidumbre macroeconómica y los efectos de las políticas comerci...

The unimportance of Venezuelan oil

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  Venezuela's century-old oil industry is living its worst hours not because of sanctions but because of Chavismo's incompetence. Hugo Chávez came to power with the monetary and political support of Arab kingdoms that saw a defiant Venezuela growing its oil production before 1998. Had Hugo Chávez not come to power, Venezuela would be close to 8 million barrels per day right now. 25 years later, they are celebrating if they reach 900,000 barrels per day, after receiving a production capacity of 3.5 million barrels per day in 1999. The Saudis and other kingdoms wanted Venezuela to stay part of OPEC. They wanted to keep the same levels of production and helped Chávez come to power. But then he betrayed them by working with the Persians, although he was still employed with the task at hand. Chávez did the dirty work of not only keeping production levels the same but destroying them, which benefited his Arab, Russian, North American, Latin American, African etc. oil competitors....

Brazil and its decarbonization

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  Brazil still has no deadline for phasing out fossil fuels, although at the end of January, Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira signed a cooperation agreement with the International Energy Agency to accelerate the country's energy transition. Brazil's climate target (known as NDC, an acronym for Nationally Determined Contribution) outlines emission reduction scenarios for the entire economy, without specifying deadlines for specific sectors. The federal government is developing a new plan, but it is not expected to be implemented until 2025. Brazilian ESG observers are clear that the country's policy is not one of transition and that, at least until 2030, the expansion of hydrocarbon production and consumption will continue to be a priority. Indeed, the new PAC demonstrates this imbalance. Most of the R$ 565.4 billion foreseen in the program's Transition and Energy Security Axis goes to dirty fuels: 64% of the total will go to the oil and gas industry, ...

Venezuela and Maduro's Oil Mirage

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  For any observer of what is happening in oil-rich Venezuela, reading the news on the subject in the global business press is sometimes laughable. The dynamics are simple. The oil companies involved in the Venezuelan oil quagmire and the news agencies are forced to sell a reality that does not exist. The former so as not to frighten their shareholders. The latter because their correspondents need to be paid for news from that country. Maduro's regime, not at all condescending to the free press, releases some data and scoops to correspondents in exchange for a friendly view of the regime. In the end, a deception is constantly generated around the oil industry in Venezuela. What is the reality? PDVSA is a shambles inside. It is not reliable. It is undermined by criminal networks. It has some managers who are trying to do things right, but the networks of Chavismo, that is, Maduro and his allies, are not only creating chaos, but brutal plunder in all areas of activity. This is no...

Colombia: Energy insecurity on the horizon

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  Petro is about to plunge Colombia into a scenario of energy insecurity and the impact on the economy will be terrible. They already have disinvestment problems upstream and downstream, but what Petro is proposing as an energy policy, especially in hydrocarbons, will leave Colombia and its economy at the mercy of a high energy dependence from abroad. The Situation Colombia's economy is heavily dependent on hydrocarbon revenues. Oil and gas exports now account for about 10% of the country's GDP and 20% of its exports. If Petro takes on these numbers, he should leave his sustainability theme for speeches and let Colombia keep exploring (as long as the guerrillas allow, of course). Colombia's next presidential election is scheduled for May 31, 2026. Much could change in the intervening two years. It is possible that economic pressures and waning public support could force a rethink of energy policy or even cause damage, given the speed with which reserves could be depleted or...