Global Energy Dilemmas: What leaders have on the table.


Governments at the global level face two dilemmas in the field of energy: 1) energy security versus sustainability through energy transition, 2) technological globalization versus technological geolocation. Let us look briefly at what each consists of and what can be expected.

Energy Security versus Sustainability through Transition

This is the most common dilemma and has been present in energy transitions and cycles throughout history. It is essentially a question of evaluating the available energy flow at the best price versus achieving the lowest environmental, social, and political impact. Today, it is an important weight, and it is what is causing more disappointment among those who are betting on sustainability in the big political-communicative flows. As discussed in previous posts, the speed of commercial application of renewables, which is already a major achievement, has not yet been successfully coupled with the solution of energy security. The key is storage capacity. But again, the dilemma is that the production of new batteries also has a major impact on nature in terms of biodiversity and water stress. There is nothing free in nature. Only our presence has a cost. Although the major political communication streams, i.e. the power narratives in the current "zeitgeist", do not talk much about this reality, in the offices of your electric company or the battery manufacturer, they are aware that they will soon do so. 

Technological Globalization versus Technological Geolocation

The future of energy is not only about storage capacity and the impact of critical mineral extraction on nature, but also about ICT. It is not known whether Xi's current leadership of China will paradoxically succeed in taking China out of the competition for global primacy, or whether we will see a declining US with a slowing China maintaining this cold war, but the field where most trenches are being dug is ICT. Energy in the future will be in the hands of AI management and intelligent consumption. Control of these delivery platforms will be important. Will it be China, the West, or some other Eurasian power? That is the big question. If there is no primacy, there will be blocs, as is already beginning to happen in technology, although it is not a fully consolidated trend in the economy. Governments will have to decide whether to join a global platform depending on who achieves primacy in a bloc. History says it will be by bloc, but it is not decided. This also ties in with the earlier dilemma of energy security versus sustainability.

What lies ahead?

Beyond the cruel use of energy as a weapon, which is another issue we may address in the future, governments will continue to struggle between ensuring that their citizens have electricity, heat, fuel for their homes, workplaces, and mobility every day, or defending the environment by pursuing an extreme policy of sustainability. Although this is a historical dilemma, it does not mean that these are 100% exclusive solutions. On the contrary, humanity has managed to find a synthesis or a solution with the available technology. Where there is a much more difficult dilemma to solve, since the bulk of humanity does not control this variable, which is in the hands of the superpowers, is whether it accepts a primacy or goes for the blocks. This will be difficult to resolve and there is no certainty as to how it will play out.

In any case, today's increasingly digitized citizens are protesting more about energy outages, fuel prices, and their energy security. This includes business people and those in power.

In the cinema or at music awards, in political or corporate press conferences or big summits to defend sustainability with many spotlights can underpin the defense of the environment, but when it comes to keeping those lights on and limousines or planes waiting for the winners and / or powerful, energy security and emitting what it emits is key.

In the end, energy security and globalization win (certainly for hydrocarbons, even with sanctioned crudes), but the dilemmas will remain for at least a few decades.


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