Lo que nos espera en el mercado petrolero durante 2018-2020


Hay elementos que nos pueden indicar que los cambios y presiones internas en dos exportadores clave como lo son Irán y Arabia Saudita podrían sacar los precios rumbo a los 70 dólares el barril, sobre todo si el shale americano no vuelve a sus niveles previos por problemas básicos de financiación. 

No obstante, los cambios esenciales, tanto el plan 2030 de los sauditas como la apertura a la exploración en las costas americanas indican que el ambiente de las inversiones a corto plazo puede mejorar y con ello el optimismo en una extensión a la sobreoferta o al menos el mantenimiento de un punto de equilibrio similar al observado en el 2017. 

El 2018 será un año de elecciones en buena parte del mundo, la situación de Qatar tenderá a estabilizarse y así en Siria con el triunfo evidente de Moscú, pero también hay indicios de aceleración del crecimiento en el consumo en China e India.

Todo esto nos lleva a pensar que el equilibrio de la demanda y la oferta favorecería enormente a mantener el rango entre los 55 y 65 dólares el barril de WTI, tal como lo indicamos en recientes entradas y que no veremos el despegue por encima de esta rango sino a partir del último trimestre del 2018.

Se comienza un año turbulento coyunturalmente pero hay elementos que nos indican que no será muy distinto al 2017.


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