Abril 2017 ¿Qué está pasando en el mercado petrolero?



El mercado petrolero está comenzando una fase de reequilibrio entre la oferta y la demanda ¿La razón? A pesar del empuje y resiliencia del shale con costes sostenibles, aún con estos precios, se comenzarán a sentir los efectos de los recortes o suspensión de proyectos importantes que deberían atender la demanda proyectada a corto y medio plazo.

En 2 años veremos una recuperación notable de los precios del petróleo y dependerá de la sostenibilidad del shale y las fallas de la oferta debido a los efectos de la suspensión de proyectos de magnitud o con mayores costes. 

Lo doloroso para los sauditas y otros países para la OPEP es que todo su esfuerzo ha sido casi en vano, incluso con los regalos de caída de producción en Libia, Nigeria y Venezuela. Desde luego la caída hubiese sido mayor, pero el equilibrio entre lo que dejaron de ingresar y lo que seguirán ingresando con estos precios con fuerte presión interna incluso en los países del golfo, no necesariamente compense el esfuerzo. A corto plazo perdieron la guerra contra el shale.

Aún así, la pérdida de la capacidad de la OPEP para incidir en los mercados gracias al shale no es eterna mientras exista demanda y mientras la producción shale se debilite, un escenario que está planteado para el año 2020. 

En este momento estamos entrando en una fase de recuperación de los precios pero se mantendrá oscilando entre los 45 y 55 dólares durante lo que queda del año y tomará impulso hacia los 60 dólares durante el año 2018. Podemos ver precios oscilando entre los 80 y 90 dólares para el año 2019 y 2020, lo que sería un momento de reequilibrio de la relación entre la oferta y la demanda para de nuevo reimpulsar proyectos no convencionales que podría impulsar junto a la caída de la demanda otro período de bajos precios.

Es así, y así ha funcionado siempre, de manera cíclica y con múltiples actores jugando diversos roles en la medida que sus respectivas habilidades en gestionar la compleja relación entre la geología, la demanda y la tecnología se los permita.

No obstante, a largo plazo, el rol del petróleo irá perdiendo importancia. Seguirá en la palestra de la dieta energética hasta el año 2040 cuando la innovación tecnológica energética comience a cerrar el ciclo energético de los hidrocarburos.

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