Irán 2016-2020: cuatro años para crecer






Durante 2016 Irán se preparará para su despegue y no solo en el campo de los hidrocarburos donde inversionistas extranjeros esperan abordar el país con 30.000 millones de dólares sino en todos los sectores necesitados urgentemente de actualización. El optimismo en torno a un Irán post-sanciones y su empuje en múltiples sectores de su sociedad apuntan a que el próximo año será de despegue y consolidación de su posición geopolítica en Oriente Medio.

Hoy en día existen entre 100 y 150 proyectos de hidrocarburos que están esperando ponerse en marcha y que agregarán entre 10 y 15 millones de barriles al día a la oferta global rentables entre 20 y 25 dólares el barril y uno de los puntos más importantes de atracción de inversión es Irán, además de Irak, Argentina, EEUU, Canadá, Rusia e Indonesia.

Empresas como Total, Royal Dutch Shell o Lukoil están sumamente interesadas en el desarrollo de las reservas iraníes y dispuestas a desembolsar en inversiones cerca de 30.000 millones de dólares. 

Irán se prepara para lanzar cerca de 70 proyectos de petróleo y gas natural a principio del año 2016.

En este momento Irán no tiene problemas para vender 500.000 barriles de petróleo al día una vez las sanciones sean levantadas en el año 2016 pero ya esa oferta ha sido asumida por el mercado y se da por descontada. Irán tiene como meta ampliar su capacidad de producción a 5,7-6 millones de barriles diarios para finales de 2020 partiendo desde los actuales 2,7 millones de barriles diarios.

En abril de 2016 se espera que los resultados de las primeras las licitaciones se conviertan en contratos internacionales, la mayoría de ellos, en asociación con la National Iranian Oil Company.

Sin duda para el año 2020, si la situación geopolítica no varía, algo que buscará sin duda el lobby israelí y saudita, la industria petrolera iraní estará bastante fortalecida e incluso integrada a sistemas conectados con Irak. Pero aún falta para ello y como se sabe la región es un polvorín de constante inestabilidad.
 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The unimportance of Venezuelan oil

Image
  Venezuela's century-old oil industry is living its worst hours not because of sanctions but because of Chavismo's incompetence. Hugo Chávez came to power with the monetary and political support of Arab kingdoms that saw a defiant Venezuela growing its oil production before 1998. Had Hugo Chávez not come to power, Venezuela would be close to 8 million barrels per day right now. 25 years later, they are celebrating if they reach 900,000 barrels per day, after receiving a production capacity of 3.5 million barrels per day in 1999. The Saudis and other kingdoms wanted Venezuela to stay part of OPEC. They wanted to keep the same levels of production and helped Chávez come to power. But then he betrayed them by working with the Persians, although he was still employed with the task at hand. Chávez did the dirty work of not only keeping production levels the same but destroying them, which benefited his Arab, Russian, North American, Latin American, African etc. oil competitors....
Read more

Latin America: conflict and energy

Image
  Latin America is affected by remote conflicts. The region also has its own conflicts, but they are not as affected by this as conflicts in regions that sell or consume raw materials. These are the Middle East and Asia. Verisk Maplecroft says that conflict-affected areas have grown by 65% since 2021. They now cover 4.6% of the world's land, up from 2.8% three years ago. That's almost twice the size of India. The upsurge in conflict is having a significant impact on people, migration, geopolitics, the economy and international trade. More people are dying in violence. By the end of the year, there will be more than 200,000 deaths from conflict, which is 29% more than in 2021. The Middle East and Ukraine are the most intense war zones. Both could get worse. Twenty-seven countries, including Ecuador, Colombia, India, Indonesia and Thailand, have seen a big rise in risk since 2021. But sub-Saharan Africa has seen more conflict than any other region. The Indo-Pacific region is ...
Read more

Argentina and the evolution of South America's gas geopolitics

Image
  According to Bolivia's state-owned oil company YPFB, Bolivia's natural gas exports to Argentina have ceased following almost two decades of trade. This is due to a decline in production in Bolivia and Argentina's increasing status as a fuel exporter. This marks the end of the Kirchnerist and Evista (Evo Morales) era, as well as the true nature of the evolution of Bolivian fields and disinvestment in exploration and development in the Andean country. It is important to recall that during the Kirchners' initial period of statist rule, significant damage was done to Argentina's gas capabilities in the areas of exploration, development and transportation. Following the expropriation of foreign private companies exploring and establishing production capacities, Bolivia was able to capitalise on the results of their work in the gas industry. The Bolivians failed to capitalise on the opportunities presented to them and are now facing challenges. The Argentine turnaroun...
Read more